Why the CO2 'Theory' Fails

Why Why Why the CO2 'Theory' Fails

Earth's atmosphere, which is around 300 miles thick, is mainly made of nitrogen and oxygen, although there are many other trace substances in its composition. Trace substances make up only 1 percent of the bulk of the atmosphere while nitrogen (78 percent), oxygen (21 percent) and argon (1 percent) make up the rest.
The minority 1 percent contains a variety of things, including minute amounts of neon, carbon dioxide, helium, krypton, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrogen, iodine, ozone, xenon, ammonia and carbon monoxide. At lower altitudes, water vapor may also be present.
The atmosphere is divided into five layers, including the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and exosphere. The layer closest to Earth is the troposphere. It's around four to 12 miles thick. Scientists know the least about the mesosphere since weather balloons and jets can't reach its height (31 to 53 miles above the Earth) and satellites orbit too high above it
Scientists express the gasses in  parts per million, or ppm. In March 2011, carbon dioxide levels were at 391 ppm, which is 0.0391 percent of the atmosphere. This roughly corresponds to a mass of 3 trillion tons.
When we look at the density, I.e how heavy the gas is. We can see that SEAWATER is just a little heavier! Infact the IPPC own scientists :
M. Kaufmann, O. A. Gusev, and K. U. Grossmann
Department of Physics, University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany
R. G. Roble, M. E. Hagan, and C. Hartsough
High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
A. A. Kutepov
Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Received 2 April 2001; revised 28 September 2001; accepted 28 September 2001; published 18 October 2002. quote from the abstract:
The vertical and horizontal distribution of CO 2 densities
in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere as
measured by CRISTA
[ 1 ] The Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) experiment measured the global distribution of CO 2 4.3 mm infrared emissions in the
mesosphere and lower thermosphere during two Space Shuttle missions in November 1994 and August 1997. The daytime radiances have been inverted to CO 2 number
densities in the 60–130 km range by using a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model.
A detailed sensitivity study of retrieved CO 2 number densities was carried out. The O( 1 D)
excitation mechanism and model parameters constitute the most important uncertainties of
retrieved CO 2 , typically 10–20%. The inaccuracy due to uncertainties in other
atmospheric parameters is usually less than 10%. The CO 2 volume mixing ratio (VMR)
deviates from being well mixed between 70 and 80 km, which is significantly lower than
indicated by previous rocket-borne mass spectrometer data and model calculations but is in good agreement with the data obtained by other 4.3 mm emission and absorption
experiments. The global distribution of CRISTA-2 CO 2 density shows significant
longitudinal and latitudinal structures. The zonal mean CO 2 densities are increasing
toward polar summer latitudes below 90 km and above 115 km. Between 90 and 115 km,
the latitudinal gradient is reversed. At 100 km, the gradient is mostly pronounced,
reaching up to 50% difference between low and high latitudes. These variations are
compared with results obtained by the Thermosphere/Ionosphere/Mesosphere
Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), showing very good agreement
for the latitudinal distribution. Below 110 km, this variation is mostly due to the change in
INDEX TERMS : 3394 Meteorology and
total density rather than to the CO 2 VMR.
Atmospheric Dynamics: Instruments and techniques; 3360 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Remote
sensing; 0340 Atmospheric Composition and Structure.
Ok , now a:
    FACT:  Changing CO2 has no effect EVEN the Models used by the Met Office and UN's Climate Committee (the IPCC) show CO2 levels have no effect on the Jet Stream or extremes which come from the Wild Jet stream changes which they fail to predict.  It is meteorological fact that the recent very wild weather extremes and contrasts follow from wild Jet Stream behavior. 

2. FACT. Even if CO2 had an effect the idea that Man’s 4% of total CO2 flux rules the other natural 96% flux in and out of sea/land making it follow man’s activity is a ridiculous conspiracy theory of nature.

Atomic weights go gasses

C=12.011
N=14.007
O= 15.99
Neon= 20.180
Argon= 39.948
Xenon=131








“Determination of the Total Emissivity of a Mixture of Gases Containing 5% of Water
Vapor and 0.039% of Carbon Dioxide at Overlapping Absorption Bands.”
By Nasif S. Nahle
Scientist, University Professor and Director of Scientific Research Division at Biology Cabinet Mexico
Abstract
This assessment is a review of the common AGW argument on the carbon dioxide increasing the
potential of the water vapor for absorbing and emitting IR radiation as a consequence of the overlapping absorption/emission spectral bands. I have determined the total emissivity of a mixture of gases containing 5% of water vapor and 0.039% of carbon dioxide in all spectral bands where their absorptivities/emissivities overlap. The result of these calculations is that the carbon dioxide attenuates the total absorptivity/emissivity of the water vapor, working like a coolant, not a warmer of the atmosphere and the surface.

Clouds over NZ 1]10]2019

1. FACT. There is no evidence for the CO2 climate driver proposition in the real world using real data over hundreds of thousands of years. World temperatures do not follow CO2.
    The world is not warming and has not been doing so for 18 years. Even under fraudulent UN-MetO-NOAA manipulated data the world is not warming. ALL the alarmist predictions of CO2 warmism have failed. 

      It follows War should be declared on termites which emit 10x Man's CO2 equivalent. Why has this not happened?

Southern Hemisphere jet stream

3. FACT. The reason why the CO2 atmosphere theory can never work is that the Ocean-atmosphere interface controls the amount of CO2 in air – a warmer ocean (which holds 50x more CO2 than the atmosphere) emits CO2 and vice versa. This is very basic physics*. 

    Just as when you warm a glass of fizzy drink more CO2 comes off and it absorbs more when it is cold. Putting more CO2 above the glass of fizzy drink does NOT however warm it up!
    Ocean temperatures CONTROL atmospheric CO2 levels. It is an observed fact in millions of years of data that Ocean temperature changes LEAD atmospheric CO2 changes. 
    Irrespective of these facts there are 2 other reasons why CO2 warmist theory must fail: a) the surafce cooling effect of plants b) Non equilibrium thermodynamics in the atmosphere  *Henry's Law.*

Henry's Law Problem

How many grams of carbon dioxide gas is dissolved in a 1 L bottle of carbonated water if the manufacturer uses a pressure of 2.4 atm in the bottling process at 25 °C?Given: KH of CO2 in water = 29.76 atm/(mol/L) at 25 °CSolution    When a gas is dissolved in a liquid, the concentrations will eventually reach equilibrium between the source of the gas and the solution. Henry's law shows that the concentration of a solute gas in a solution is directly proportional to the partial pressure of the gas over the solution.P = KHC where:P is the partial pressure of the gas above the solution.KH is the Henry's law constant for the solution.C is the concentration of the dissolved gas in solution.C = P/KHC = 2.4 atm/29.76 atm/(mol/L)C = 0.08 mol/LSince we have only 1 L of water, we have 0.08 mol of CO.

Convert moles to grams:

mass of 1 mol of CO₂ = 12+(16x2) = 12+32 = 44 g

Answer

g of CO2 = mol CO2 x (44 g/mol)g of CO2 = 8.06 x 10-2 mol x 44 g/molg of CO2 = 3.52 g 

There are 3.52 g of CO₂ dissolved in a 1 L bottle of carbonated water from the manufacturer.

Talking about BASIC Science .

“97% of scientists agree!”

This is the mantra that became popular several years after Al Gore’s 2006 propaganda film An Inconvenient Truth. It was endorsed by Pres. Barack Obama when he tweeted on May 16, 2013 that, “97% of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made, and dangerou Where did this 97% figure originate? It appears to have started with a short 2009 paper by Peter Doran and Maggie Zimmerman of the University of Illinois at Chicago. In this paper, the announced the results of the two question poll. This poll was sent to 10,257 “Earth scientists.”
The two questions were:
1. When compared with pre- 1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?
The poll received 3,146 responses. Of these only 79 of the respondents listed climate science as their area of expertise and had published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change. Of those 79, 97% responded “yes” to both questions. 97% of 79 is 77. When they tell you that 97% of scientists agree, you need to know that they mean 77 scientists out of 10,257 polled. I admit that I’m not very good at this new math, but the way I learned it, 77 out of 10,257 is 0.75%.
This is a dramatic conclusion drawn from a mere two question poll based on subjective evaluations. I asked an expert in research methodology about their paper, and she had the following questions:
    What do they consider as an “earth scientist”?
    What do they mean by “significant”?
    Is there a standard definition of pre-1800s temperatures?
    What types of human activity are to be considered?
    Are there multiple intervening factors?
    When considering mean global temperatures, from what date range is the mean derived?
    What, exactly, is being measured in global temperatures?
Doran and Zimmerman failed to identify the possibility of question bias and polling bias in their results. They freely admit the largest source of bias, apparently in the hopes that nobody would notice. Of their subsample of respondents, they filtered for scientists who published at least 50% of their papers on the subject of climate change. In 2009, mainstream climate scientists who disagreed with the global warming model had no incentive to publish their refutations. The sampling method of the results, in essence, filtered out anyone who would disagree with the proposition of anthropogenic global warming. In plain English that means, “97% of the scientists who agree with us agree with us.” Astonishing.
The Dornan and Zimmerman study and its associated controversy prompted John Cook and several other researchers to do a study of scientific literature to try and determine the scientific consensus surrounding anthropogenic global warming. They studied 11,944 climate abstracts. Of those, 7,930 were deemed to have no position on anthropogenic global warming and were discarded. Of those that remained 78 rejected anthropogenic global warming, 40 were uncertain, and the remainder endorsed anthropogenic global warming. Somehow, 3896 papers endorsing anthropogenic global warming out of 11,944 became 97%. In a jaw-dropping case of analysis bias, 66.4% of the data was simply thrown out, allowing them to claim the remaining 32.6% was actually 97%. This paper seem to confirm Dornan and Zimmerman’s results, and was widely touted, even though it means essentially nothing because the papers cited weren’t examined beyond the abstracts.
The Barstard Polar Bears;
      Polar Bear numbers reach new highs – Population increases to the highest levels in decades

Far from the 2007 predictions of a 67% decline in global polar bear numbers, the new report reveals that numbers have risen to the highest levels in decades.
  
HOWEVER
Forty percent. ( this is the mainstream headline )

one small area is in decline , the rest doing well

That’s the stunning population loss for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. The news comes from a new study linking the dramatic decline in this polar bear sub-population in northeast Alaska and Canada to a loss of sea ice due to climate change.
How does climate change affect polar bears so dramatically? Polar bears rely on sea ice to access the seals that are their primary source of food as well as to rest and breed. With less sea ice every year, polar bears and many other ice-dependent creatures are at risk.Today’s study, published in Ecological Applications, analyzed data on polar bears in northeast Alaska and the Northwest Territories and documented a 40 percent population loss between 2001-2010 from 1,500 to 900 bears.
“An urgent need to address climate change” ( here is the narrative)
Climate change is the main threat facing polar bears. But we also know the effects are being seen around the world. Now is the time we must speak up and demand global action.

1958 eh, 

“This is a clear warning sign of the impact a warming Arctic has on ice-dependent species like the polar bear,” said Dr. Pete Ewins, WWF’s Senior Species Officer in Canada. “Given this subpopulation is at the edge of the range, it’s no surprise to see this happening so soon.”
Added Margaret Williams,  Managing Director of WWF’s Arctic Program, “Here are concrete numbers to show us that the impacts of climate change are happening now. We need to change course if we want to stop further habitat loss and ensure resilient wildlife populations, both in the Arctic and around the world.”
Though;     
The US Geological Survey estimated the global population of polar bears at 24,500 in 2005. In 2015, the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group estimated the population at 26,000 (range 22,000–31,000)7 but additional surveys published 2015–2017 brought the total to near 28,500. However, data published in 2018 brought that number to almost 29,5009 with a relatively wide margin of error. This is the highest global estimate since the bears were protected by international treaty in 1973
My scientific estimates make perfect sense and they tally with what the Inuit and other Arctic residents are seeing on the ground. Almost everywhere polar bears come into contact with people, they are much more common than they used to be. It’s a wonderful conservation success story.”
From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019). This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).2019/03/27  Do you get the feeling someone is pulling ya plonker?

weeee,,,I can fly

           Btw it tuns out that these baskets   bears, Cause these walruses to Jump!  It Turns out the walruses, love to rest on the land in large groups for protection. When they get “ spooked” they stampede, Naturally , either by film crew flying drones or the big basket bears, they naturally fall of the cliff.

The footage from the David "attaboy" our planet TV program,  looked like it was on the same beach. It wasnt.The beaches were over one hundred kilometers apart.
The Poles are Melting
Surface temperatures Undocumented adjustments
The graph shows temperatures and their adjustments in Darwin (a smallish town in NW Australia). The blue curve is actual temperature which suffered a drop in 1940, thought to be 'unusual', but happening again around 1987. The average trend of the raw data (blue) shows 0.7 degrees cooling per century. After undocumented adjustments (black curve), the red curve was arrived at, showing warming of 1.2 degrees per century. This is a very blatant case of cooking the temperature, and many such cases have been documented from all over the world. For more information, visit http://climateaudit.org/.





Policy-driven deception
Investigators Joe D’Aleo and Anthony Watts reported the following shortcomings in the temperature records [1]:
    1. Instrumental temperature data for the pre-satellite era (1850-1980) have been so widely, systematically, and unidirectionally tampered with that it cannot be credibly asserted there has been any significant “global warming” in the 20th century.
    2. All terrestrial surface-temperature databases exhibit very serious problems that render them useless for determining accurate long-term temperature trends.
    3. All of the problems have skewed the data so as to greatly overstate observed warming both regionally and globally.
    4. Global terrestrial temperature data are gravely compromised because more than three-quarters of the 6,000 stations that once existed are no longer reporting.
    5. There has been a severe bias towards removing higher-altitude, higher-latitude, and rural stations, leading to a further serious overstatement of warming.
    6. Contamination by urbanization, changes in land use, improper siting, and inadequately-calibrated instrument upgrades further overstates warming.
    7. Numerous peer-reviewed papers in recent years have shown the overstatement of observed longer term warming is 30-50% from heat-island contamination alone.
    8. Cherry-picking of observing sites combined with interpolation to vacant data grids may make heat-island bias greater than 50% of 20th-century warming.
    9. In the oceans, data are missing and uncertainties are substantial. Comprehensive coverage has only been available since 2003, and shows no warming.
    10. Satellite temperature monitoring has provided an alternative to terrestrial stations in compiling the global lower-troposphere temperature record. Their findings are increasingly diverging from the station-based constructions in a manner consistent with evidence of a warm bias in the surface temperature record.
    11. NOAA and NASA, along with CRU, were the driving forces behind the systematic hyping of 20th-century “global warming”.
    12. Changes have been made to alter the historical record to mask cyclical changes that could be readily explained by natural factors like multidecadal ocean and solar changes.
    13. Global terrestrial data bases are seriously flawed and can no longer be trusted to assess climate trends or VALIDATE model forecasts.
    14. An inclusive external assessment is essential of the surface temperature record of CRU, GISS and NCDC “chaired and paneled by mutually agreed to climate scientists who do not have a vested interest in the outcome of the evaluations.”
    15. Reliance on the global data by both the UNIPCC and the US GCRP/CCSP also requires a full investigation and audit.”

Surface temp measurement points

[1] http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/policy_driven_deception.html  by Joe D’Aleo and Anthony Watts

The “hockey Stick”

Back in 1998, a little known climate scientist named Michael Mann and two colleagues published a paper that sought to reconstruct the planet's past temperatures going back half a millennium before the era of thermometers--thereby showing just how out of whack recent warming has been. The finding: Recent northern hemisphere temperatures had been "warmer than any other year since (at least) AD 1400." The graph depicting this result looked rather like a hockey stick: After a long period of relatively minor temperature variations (the "shaft"), it showed a sharp mercury upswing during the last century or so ("the blade")
In a news Headline ."Penn State climate scientist, Michael ‘hockey stick’ Mann commits contempt of court in the ‘climate science trial of the century.’ Prominent alarmist shockingly defies judge and refuses to surrender data for open court examination. Only possible outcome: Mann’s humiliation, defeat and likely criminal investigation in the U.S.

The defendant in the libel trial, the 79-year-old Canadian climatologist, Dr Tim Ball (above, right) is expected to instruct his British Columbia attorneys to trigger mandatory punitive court sanctions, including a ruling that Mann did act with criminal intent when using public funds to commit climate data fraud. Mann’s imminent defeat is set to send shock waves worldwide within the climate science community as the outcome will be both a legal and scientific vindication of U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that climate scare stories are a “hoax.”As you can see the temperature graph shows that the temperature just varied a few tenth of a degree before 1900. This graph was publish in the very prominent scientific magazine Nature and made quite a sensation. It was also prominent display in several places in the 2001 IPCC report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
It has now been removed from the latest 2007 IPCC report for policymakers because it has become to much of an embarrassment for the IPCC to include it.The graph was subsequently criticized by many global warming skeptics and historians, because weather events such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were absent. Although with little imagination one can see that the temperature is a little higher in Medieval time period and little cooler after 1500. But the variation is far to small to correspond to historical records.

Criticism from some skeptics have been centered around the statistical Auto Regression method which was used and the associated computer program. It was suspected that it might be responsible for data set end irregularities which could be responsible for some of the rapid rise in the 20th century.
The flaw is in the method in collecting the various types of sampled data or proxy as it is called in climatology circles. It turns out that the data is collected from different sources such as corals, tree rings, ice cores and temperature records.

The temperature is only taken from measurements during the last century. The temperature estimation is mainly taken from biological materials and is primarily from tree rings. With tree ring analysis or Dendrochronology which is its scientific name, it is possible to evaluate the growing condition of trees. The distance between the rings are larger if the growing season is longer for a specific year and it becomes shorter if the growing season is short. However the tree ring growth is also affected by other conditions such as humidity, the amount of sunshine, soil and by fertilization.

Because not enough reliable temperature recordings exist before the 1900, the temperature estimations before that time are largely based on tree ring recordings. In order to estimate the tree ring growth correspondence to temperature variations a normalization was made from tree ring recordings during the 20th century by matching them against made temperature recordings. The problem of the tree ring recordings after 1900 are that they do not follow the temperature changes correctly.
The condition for tree ring growth after 1900 have changed substantially.
What was missed and what cause the flaw is something that every school kid learn at school or at least they use to!

And that is the biological mechanism of Photosynthesis!


The tree rings are affected by increased levels of CO2. In other words the tree rings grow larger today than they did 100 years ago. A major part of the extra tree ring growth is from elevated levels of Carbon Dioxide instead from the expected temperature increase. Another problem is from the so called Urban Heat effect. This effect is caused at temperature recording stations in or near urban areas which  becomes hotter over time because of urban sprawls. The concrete and asphalt heats up the area. A temperature station which 100 years ago was out in the countryside may now be in an urban area. We know that most of the recorded warming have been in the northern hemisphere in the US, Europe, Russia and in the Artic. Some of that recorded warming may be caused by The Urban Heat Effect.

Ya local weed grower adding Co2 900ppm is best aparently!

The made normalization and matching from the temperature and tree ring growth means that the temperature signals before 1900 has been severely dampened leaving the erroneous impression that temperatures before 1900 were very static. If you look closely at the hockey stick graph a marked kink can be seen where the temperature recordings are absent and where the temperature recordings are included. This is visible around year 1900 and is a result from the different normalization of the tree rings.

Harlech Castle

If you look at the temperature recording going back to 1850 at the bottom of the home page you will see that the temperature variations are of the same magnitude before 1900 as the are after the 1900.

Finally; Harlech Castle (Welsh: Castell Harlech), located in Harlech, Gwynedd, Wales, is a Grade I-listed medieval fortification, constructed atop a spur of rock close to the Irish Sea. It was built by Edward I during his invasion of Wales between 1282 and 1289 at the relatively modest cost of £8,190 notice it was designed to be re-supplied BY SEA.

Good luck with that now! 
 

So by now, if you are still clinging to the hope that you aint been scammed by these fellas; and or the odd child ..there's no hope! 

World War one British propaganda

And there's more " facts" ..will this blog ever end !

Second list.

Please circulate amongst the brain-washed kids.

1. Life and planet earth have never faced extinction before. Computer models that predict this scenario are science fiction.

2. Scientists estimate that 150-200 species of plant, insect, bird and mammal normally become extinct every 24 hours. 

3. Higher sea-levels actually deposit more sand on a beach. It is the lower sea-levels that cause erosion that undermines the sand.

4. Solar panels can supply the national grid, between latitudes 35°N-35°S. That means any solar panels south of Kaitaia are a net energy drain, and subsidised by the taxpayer.

5. Wind turbines consume fossil fuels massively in manufacture. There are 14000 inactive units in the world. The blades chop up native birds, supplying less than 1% of electricity needs.

6. More people die of cold than by heat.

7. Electric vehicles all run on electricity produced by fossil fuels.

8. Polar bear numbers are increasing, not diminishing. They are not seen in winter simply because they are all hibernating in snow-caves.

9. Mankind has survived at least one hundred ice ages, maybe more.

10. The temperature difference between Invercargill and Kaitaia is 7°C. Travellers do not step from the plane and die. Yet we are told that 2° per century is something humans cannot adapt to.  

11. One whale’s belch emits 40x more methane than one cow. Are whales are killing the planet?

12. One human exhales 40,000ppm of CO2 before each new breath.

13. Earth’s natural state is ice age. It has spent 80% of its geological history iced up.

14. The planet has warmed by only 1°C in the last 8,000 years.

15. Before the 1990s and digital dials, there were only glass thermometers and they could not accurately measure tenths. 

16. Universal sea level is still immeasurable with today’s technology.

17. Most (70%) of the world is still unexplored e.g. S America, Canada, Australia, Greenland, Russia, Arctic circle, and the many uninhabited islands.

18. 99% of life (biomass) lives in the ocean, less than 1% of life roams on land. Man constitutes 0.01% of life.

19. The rain forests could all be burned down immediately making zero difference to the world’s climate.

20. Barometric pressures are controlled by the moon’s declination cycle. This in turn controls cloud density. 

21. Satellites only photograph the tops of clouds. The direction of sea-swells determines the path of cyclones.

22. CO2, being heavier than air, only reaches the atmosphere by being thrust from volcanoes.

23. CO2 came down from the atmosphere 450 million years ago, when vegetation evolved and sucked it out. It all belongs in the atmosphere, and is trying to "go home.".

24. There is always water in the atmosphere. It is called relative humidity. Humans call it rain when it approaches 100%. We can never run out of water in air.

25. Most earthquakes and volcanoes are undetectable, as they occur under the sea. The tide of the land is really a daily earthquake.

26. We need 30 centuries of data to comment on weather/climate 100 years from now. 

27. We, the Master Race have decided we own the weather. What childish arrogance.

28. Humans are the only species not able to predict earthquakes. Even ants get warnings.

29. Because weather systems come from the sea, volcanic clouds have no lasting effect on climate.

30. An “average” is not a real quantity, but an idea. A “record” is an idea of an idea.

31. There are only about 3000 temperature gathering stations left, after the closure of stations just prior to the international climate conferences, that showed warmer conditions in the past.

32. Temperature recorders are deliberately placed in warm areas, such as airports. There is no standardisation of positioning.

33. The temperature recorders are mostly in cities, which means that 98% of the globe is unrepresented.

34. Atmosphere is Greek for wind. Wind is the movement of air. Air is made up of layers, each with varying and constantly changing and swapping temperatures.

35. The weather does not wait until the emissions from engines reach the air, and then decide what to be. 

36. Only 3% of all the water in the world is in the atmosphere at any one time. 

37. The earth is still emerging from the last ice age at 8 millionths of a degree per day warming. Some people claim the ability to sense that (but not an earthquake). 

38. Warmer winters bring less ice and snow to highways and shipping lanes, saving millions to world economies, also reducing deaths and increasing productivity.

39. Life proliferates in warmth, therefore would welcome global warming, which is why more species are found at or near the equator.

40. Look out the window. Where is the Climate Catastrophe? Where is the Climate Emergency? What Crisis? 

Go outside and play.

Letter from 500 head scientists to the UN

From: Professor Guus Berkhout
guus.berkhout@clintel.org
23 September 2019
Sr. António Guterres, Secretary-General, United Nations,
United Nations Headquarters,
New York, NY 10017, United States of America.
Ms. Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Executive Secretary,
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
UNFCCC Secretariat, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1,
53113 Bonn, Germany

Your Excellencies,
There is no climate emergency
A global network of more than 500 knowledgeable and experienced scientists and professionals in climate and related fields have the honor to address to Your Excellencies the attached European
Climate Declaration, for which the signatories to this letter are the national ambassadors.
The general-circulation models of climate on which international policy is at present founded are unfit for their purpose. Therefore, it is cruel as well as imprudent to advocate the squandering of trillions of dollars on the basis of results from such immature models. Current climate policies
pointlessly and grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, reliable electrical energy.
We urge you to follow a climate policy based on sound science, realistic economics and genuine concern for those harmed by costly but unnecessary attempts at mitigation.
We ask you to place the Declaration on the agenda of your imminent New York session. We also invite you to organize with us a constructive high-level meeting between world-class
scientists on both sides of the climate debate early in 2020. Such a meeting would be consistent with the historically proven principles of sound science and natural justice that both sides should be fully and fairly heard. Audiatur et altera pars!
Please let us know your thoughts how we bring about such a momentous joint meeting.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Guus Berkhout Professor Reynald du Berger Terry Dunleavy Viv Forbes Professor Jeffrey Foss Morten Jødal Rob Lemeire The Netherlands
Professor Richard Lindzen French Canada Professor Ingemar Nordin
New Zealand Jim O’Brien Australia Professor Alberto Prestininzi English Canada Professor Benoît Rittaud Norway
Professor Fritz Vahrenholt Belgium Monckton of Brenchley

Ambassadors of the European Climate Declaration
USA Sweden Irish Republic Italy France Germany UK

There is no climate emergency
A global network of 500 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate  science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should
openly address the uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real benefits as well as the imagined costs of adaptation
to global warming, and the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of mitigation.
Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming   The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming.
Warming is far slower than predicted The world has warmed at less than half the originally-predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to
be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing and radiative imbalance. It tells us that we are far from understanding climate change.
Climate policy relies on inadequate models Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover,
they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO 2 is beneficial.
CO 2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth CO 2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO 2 is
beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO 2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.
Global warming has not increased natural disasters There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and
suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent. However, CO 2 -mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly. For instance, wind turbines kill birds and bats, and palm-oil plantations
destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests.
Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly
oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO 2 policy proposed for 2050. If better approaches emerge, we will have ample time to reflect and adapt. The aim of international

Japanese history from 1919 to 1941

Satsuma domain

Officially Kagoshima prefecture

The battle of Toba-fushimi between Chosha, satsuma ( pro imperial) and the Tokugawa shoganate forces. In January 1868, a year which marked the end of Fuudalisim in Japan and allowed the Emporor to make a formal declaration of his centralised power.

The Grand Stratagy of Japan from 1919 until 1941.

This document rests upon a well presented you tube video to which, expansion to, is my domain. In the original video two questions were offered;

• Why did Japan choose military solutions to solve strategic problems?
• Why were those solutions directed towards America?

After World war 1, where Japan had fought the first Anglo-Japanese alliance was signed in London 30^th January 1902 Lord landsdown and Hayashi Tadasu “ Tripartite intervention”. The Triple intervention was an intervention by Russia, Germany, and France over the terms of the treaty of Shimonoseki . Signed between Japan and the Qing dynasty of China that ended the first Sino-Japanese war. . The terms were renewed in 1905 and 1911. This prompted British suspicions about Japans intent in the South Asia region.

The alliance provisions for “mutual defense” prompted Japan to enter the first World War on the British side.

By 1918 the three big powers ( China Russia and Germany) had collapsed and into this Vacuum stepped the Japanese with anti communist intervention in eastern Siberia

I want to step back and interject with this thought that will shine a light on the thinking in and around this time.

Remember that oil had started to be recognized as the “energy” of the future. Interested parties whom may have large access to oil and be struggling to find outlets for, resorting to selling it as a “cancer cure “ with the addition of a laxative.

This move towards a “energy based economy” saw Japan on the back foot with little or no natural resources of its own.

World War one had shown that “war” would be “total” in nature and would require a large economy backed by energy. As Nathan Bedford Forrest, a Confederate Army general during the American Civil War said “ Winning means getting there first-est with the most-est”. Note that while being a good General , old Nathan was very much a product of his time.

Three schools of thought sprung up in Japan during this period.

Three Grand Strategic Responses of Japan

• Internationalists;; Shidehara Kujiro and Kato Tomosaburo

The future of war would be “total” and Japan “lacked” resourses so could not win by itself alone. So the political status quo would align themselves with a negotiated political order and example of which would be the tripple alliance with Europe 1914.

• Traditional; Araki Sadao and Osumi Mineo.

The traditional response argued that Japan could still win a limited war with a large standing army and good “opertunity”. The Russo-Japanese war being an example of this thinking. The Japanese used surprise to defeat the russians at Port Arthur. Then defend nd wear down the opposition and convince them to give upo the land as the “costs” were not worth the small but limited expansion.

• Totalists; Kita Ikki, Ishikawa Kanji and Kishi Nobosuki.

Anti-establishment groups later to be impressed by Germanys reconstruction wanted “unity” between the people but with state controlled society ( which is collectivism )to re-enforce unity with the “ national consciousness”. They also wanted to abolish or limit aristrocratic parties, big business and libertarianism.

“ The weak are meat and the strong eat” Jakuniku Kyoshoku

External expansion,

In order to expand and reform , i.e. to secure Japans status in east Asia, as Britain , Germany and France had also done. Take over territories in order to sure up the home shores. However in my opinion, I dont think that Japan realized how far back into the mists of time. There are marks on stone in Italy showing the extent of territories. Old European families and their “fondi” ( Venician investment groups ) have traditionally had investment areas. Japan being a closed country, in my opinion, failed to recognize the extent and power of these investment fronts.

Japan rationalised its expansion using Marxist ideology, with the idea of the “have’s and Have not’s” the elite and the proletariat on a global scale. Remember, Japans main interests were; to maintain a “superior position” in Asia and to “protect its economy” mostly in china and towards the Russian energy grab.

Throughout Japans post World War 1 recession and resultant austerity measures was the limited military expenditure. Japan had no money. The internationalists adopted or engaged with the “washington confrence” of 1921 to 1922. (Washington Conference, also called Washington Naval Conference, by-name of International Conference On Naval Limitation,)

The pillars of the “Washington order” were ;

• Navel treaty or the “5 power” treaty which placed limits on the tonnage of capital shipping. (Capital ships, defined as warships of more than 10,000 tons displacement or carrying guns with a calibre exceeding 8 inches, basically denoted battleships and aircraft carriers). UK and America 10 ships 525000 tons, Japan 9 ships 315000 tons but American and the british could no longer develop the bases at Singapore , Philippines and Guam.

This left Japan with modern basis in the pacific. So while having fewer ships and lesser tonnage Japan had better strategic locations. If we remember, the traditionalist view point of acquiring land , creating a buffer, though “ good opportunity”.

• Nine power treaty (1922). In return for respecting Chinese territorial interrogatory. Colonial powers , incl japan, had equal economic access to Chinese treaty ports.

The 1920s were the era of “Shidehara diplomacy”.

Shidehara entered the diplomatic service in 1899 and served in Korea, London, Washington, and the Netherlands. As ambassador to the United States in 1919, he argued in vain against U.S. immigration laws discriminating against the Japanese. He was the chief Japanese delegate to the Washington Conference (1921–22), in which the major Pacific powers agreed to a naval disarmament and a series of international agreements that would provide for security in the Pacific. As foreign minister of Japan from 1924 to 1927 and again from 1929 to 1931, Shidehara became known as an advocate of a conciliatory policy toward China and a policy of economic rather than military expansion. Through this policy, the threats from the USSR , China and American Navel tonnage arms race.

However Chinese nationalists were growing in strength. Stalins five year plan was seeing the rise in Russian military and in 1928 Chinese nationalists were iching for confrontation the K.M.T army . Just as an aside the K.M.T army were; The National Revolutionary Army (NRA), sometimes shortened to Revolutionary Army (革命軍) before 1928, and as National Army (國軍) after 1928, was the military arm of the Kuomintang (KMT, or the Chinese Nationalist Party) from 1925 until 1947 in the Republic of China. It also became the regular army of the ROC during the KMT's period of party rule beginning in 1928. It was renamed the Republic of China Armed Forces after the 1947 Constitution, which instituted civilian control of the military.

Originally organized with Soviet aid as a means for the KMT to unify China during the Warlord Era, the National Revolutionary Army fought major engagements in the Northern Expedition against the Chinese Beiyang Army warlords, in the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945) against the Imperial Japanese Army and in the Chinese Civil War against the People's Liberation Army.

Japan, also, had internal opposition from the “Traditionalists and the Totalists” as well s the navy being concerned about fleet inferiority. As well as a “perceived time pressure” which camefrom the USSRs 5 year plan and increasing Chinese unity with K.M.T clashes with Russia over Manchuria.

So, in 1931 the “Totalists” under Ishikawa Kanji staged a “false flag” event known now as the “Mukeden indecent”. September 31^st sees the Kwantung Army blow up a south Manchurian railway. A bomb was secretly planted on the tracks of the Japanese-controlled Southern Manchuria Railway by Kwantung Army elements. Charging that Chinese soldiers had attacked the rail line, Ishiwara ordered Japanese troops to seize the Chinese military barracks in the nearby city of Liutiaokou. He then ordered Kwantung Army units to seize control of all other Manchurian cities without informing the new commander-in-chief of the Kwantung Army, General Shigeru Honjo, or the Imperial Japanese Army General Staff in Tokyo. The bomb was not very powerful and no-one was hurt in the incident.

The sudden invasion of Manchuria alarmed political leaders in Japan, and brought condemnation down on the country from the international community. Ishiwara thought it most likely that he would be executed or at least dishonorably discharged for his insubordination. However, the success of the operation brought just the opposite. Ishiwara was admired by “right-wing” younger officers and nationalist societies for his daring and initiative. He returned to Japan and was given command of the IJA 4th Infantry Regiment in Sendai. This totalist move effectively ended the “9 power treaty”. Japan was now perceived as a threat in the area. Ishikawa was promoted to Chief of Army operations in 1933.

Just before we move on I want to look at Ishiwara Kanji. As his name will repeatedly appear as we progress. Ishiwara was born in Tsuruoka City, Yamagata Prefecture, into a samurai class family. His father was a police officer, but as his clan had supported the Tokugawa bakufu and then the Northern Alliance during the Boshin War of the Meiji Restoration, its members were shut out of higher government positions.

Ishiwara spent several years in various staff assignments and then was selected to study in Germany as a military attaché. He stayed in Berlin and in Munich from 1922 to 1925, focusing on military history and military strategy. He hired several former officers from the German General Staff to tutor him, and by the time that he returned to Japan, he had formed a considerable background on military theory and doctrine.

Prior to leaving for Germany, Ishiwara had converted to Nichiren Buddhism. Nichiren had taught that a period of massive conflict would precede a golden era of human culture in which the truth of Buddhism would prevail. Japan would be the center and main promulgator of the faith, which would encompass the entire world. Ishiwara felt that the period of world conflict was fast approaching, and Japan, relying upon its vision of the kokutai and its sacred mission to "liberate" China, would lead a unified East Asia to defeat the West.

Ishiwara was also the leader of a semi-religious and Pan-Asianist organization, the East-Asia League Movement (Tōarenmei undō).

In 1935 Ishiwara Kanji reveals his “Totalist Grand Strategy” of the national defense state which was to prepare for war by expansion and by becoming economically larger and independent. Remember Japan at this time was in ressession, This Necessitated the expansion into Manchuko and in 1932 established this as a state of Japan. Manchuria produced 73% of chinas iron and 33% of chinas trade in steel crops and energy as well as arms. Setting up Machuria as an complementary economy. Japan took Iron, crops and coal from Manchuria and in return, replied with consumer goods, Capita, technology and organistation. Later to be repeated in trade with America. One does have to wonder if there was outside influence with little scope for imagination and creativity pushing a long term agenda. As this “trade” appeared in the early 1970 between America and Japan. Japan, also imported scrap iron from America and “machine tooling. The fund for which came from a downsized military. In 1936 Ishiwara released his “ five year plan”.

It wasnt all plane sailing in Japan, the National defence state implementation plan , had its detractors. In 1936 the plan called for war with the USSR in the mid 1940 and a”total war” to develop from there, using the tatics of surprise , defense and attrition. The “totalists” had opposition from big business , the civilian population – due to no internal reform and austerity . The “traditionalists” , army minister Araki Sadao and the Navy who were worried about maintaning a fleet which required resourses, especially in light of the American escalation.

In 1936 an attempted coup failed. The February 26 Incident (二・二六事件 Niniroku Jiken), also known as the 2-26 Incident, was an attempted coup d'état in the Empire of Japan on 26 February 1936.

A group of young officers of the radical Kōdōha (Imperial Way) faction of the Imperial Japanese Army attempted to purge the government and military leadership of the moderate Tōseiha (Control Faction), their factional rivals and ideological opponents, to establish an ultranationalist military government. The Kōdōha, under the name the Righteous Army, succeeded in occupying Tokyo and assassinating several leading officials, including two former prime ministers, but failed to assassinate Prime Minister Keisuke Okada or secure control of the Imperial Palace. The Kōdōha and their supporters in the army were unable to achieve a change of government due to strong opposition from Tōseiha in the army, the Japanese Imperial family, and the Imperial Japanese Navy. Facing overwhelming opposition as the army moved against them, the rebels surrendered on 29 February.

This gave the “Totalists” the signals they needed to push forward with their plans. Remember that in order to expand and solidify Japans position in Asia japan needed resources. From 1929 ~ 1932 Japan went from 457 tons of scrap iron 35% of which came from America to, in 1937, 2.4 million tons. 73% of which was from America.

Japan, also had a belief in synthetic substitutes as had Germany before them. To achieve independence in petroleum, the Japanese developed a dual approach: they would acquire natural petroleum sources in Southeast Asia and at the same time establish a synthetic fuel industry for the conversion of coal to oil.

Actually, the Japanese had begun research on synthetic fuel in the 1920s, only a few years after other countries, such as Germany and Britain, that lacked sources of natural petroleum. They did excellent laboratory research on the coal hydrogenation and Fischer-Tropsch conversion processes, but in their haste to construct large synthetic fuel plants they bypassed the intermediated pilot-plant stage and failed to make a successful transition from small- to large-scale production. Unable to synthesize liquid fuels from coal, they instead derived significant quantities from the technologically simpler coal carbonization and shale oil distillation processes. In the last year of World War II, the Japanese attempted to revive their synthetic fuel industry and entered into an agreement with IG Farben for technical assistance. However with Germanys defeat this agreement may have lapsed.

With these constraints in mind and while the western powers were busy in Europe as well as the following percieved pressures a “ hybrid Grand strategy “ emerged from 1937 until 1941. The pecieved pressures were:

• Time , as we have noted before. World war in Europe , the “pace” of allied re-armament. Expected to be complete by 1942 and the B17 deployments in the Philippines. This “time pressure” concluded that even winning a limited war would be impossible.
• Circular reasoning ( traditionalists). If there is an increased threat, Japan must match that threat to keep stability in Asia. However that produced more “build up” from the threats to Japan
• Crisis reform mentality. Especially from the “totalist” faction. In that Japan was to build , to expand while fighting and by 1942 corporations had become partners of the state. Etsusaburō Shiina (椎名 悦三郎 Shiina Etsusaburo, January 16, 1898 – September 30, 1979) was a Foreign Minister of Japan from 1964–66 and played a pivotal role in ensuring peace between Japan and the Republic of Korea.
  Shiina was the first of the Japanese Ministry of Commerce and Industry Officials to join Manchukuo's industrial administration. Manchukuo became a policy test lab for the “Totalists” to gain experience and to “export” successful schemes such as the “ Electric power control law 1937”. the totalist network in Manchukuo were; Tojo Hideki, Kishi Nobusuke, Masuoka Yosuke.

However due to long supply lines etc. Japan exhausted its stockpiles of army equipment and also the restrictions of foreign reserves. Japan could only import to the value of its exports and in July 1938 japan runs out of anti-tank shells and by August of 1938 Army logistics collapse. At home things were worse.

Remember Japan has just clawed its way out of the 1930 to 1932 was possibly Japans severest ressession and the main consequences on the Japanese economy and society were as follows:

• macroeconomic downturn was felt primarily in falling prices and not so much in output contraction (estimated real growth was positive during this period). As prices fell, manufacturers produced even more to maintain earning and keep factories running. But clearly, this behavior would collectively accelerate the oversupply and the deflation. From 1929 to 1931, WPI fell about 30%, agricultural prices fell 40%, and textile prices fell nearly 50%

Around 1931, rural impoverishment became severe. Moreover in 1934, rural communities were hit by famine. Especially in Tohoku (northeastern) Region of Japan, rural poverty generated many undernourished children and some farmers were forced to sell their daughters for prostitution. This rural disaster caused much anger and popular criticism against the government and big businesses.

So, by 1938, Japan was cutting steel and oil imports by 30% , very little oil and a reliance on wind power. More Civilian rationing and austerity and finally the “national mobilization law” , in other words . The draft.

Unfortunately the world doesn't stand still while Japan struggles. War in Europe was at the fore- front of international thinking. Germany was warning Poland about polish aggression on German citizens and America, in 1934 implemented the Vinson-trammel act and in 1939 in response to “Japanese aggression”. The US terminated commercial treaties with Japan opening the way for later embargoes.

Japan was now “ Right Royally Screwed”. To put it mildly. In response Japan introduced “The Greater East Asia Co-prosperity plan” where technocracy ( inc?) and organization coupled with advanced industry would establish a “sphere” . Talks with the Dutch east indies, who were willing to sell oil to Japan ( 53% of requirement ) but with no concessions. The plan also called for expansion into Singapore and the dutch east indies. No escalation with the USA, and deference towards the “axis” alliance.

By August 1940 the Japanese Navy estimated that there was enough oil for one year. The Army, however, thought it had supplies for two years. In June 1941, Germany opened up a second front with Russia. This presented an opportunity to move into Vladivostok , the Kantokuen plan. Unfortunately this triggered in July 1941, the US oil embargo and asset freeze. Japans woe had deepened. On a side note, in the early 1970s , America suffered an energy crisis. When the Arab nations stopped shipments of oil to America for a short period of time.

This sealed the decition, in Japan, to unite under a “Common Grand Strategy” ( Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere) which proposed a limited war and expansion into South east Asia. Remember the Russo-Sino War of 1905 attack with the element of surprise, fortify, and dig in!.

• Phase 1; Secure a strategic perimeter of the pacific Islands, Thailand, Nrth Malasia, Philippines.
• Phase 2; Open up a “five” resource area Borneo, New Guinea, Singapore South Burma.
• Phase 3; Completion, Sulawesi, formerly known as Celebes, Sumatra, Java Nrth Burma.

This was to buy for time before launching “total” war with the USA and to establish a defensive line. While the US mobilizes for war, Japan reforms and develops a “National defensive state” to defend to a “stalemate” with equal resources. The plan had a December 1941 launch date.

Sometimes men need to close their eyes and jump off the veranda

of Kiyomizu temple

If you survive your wish will be granted .

Hideki Tojo.(pm)

The Japanese plan ended in disaster at Midway and marked the turning point in the war. Japan was not able to continue the long term war against a larger foe with greater resources.

I want to spend a little time looking at the battle of Midway as this highlights in my opinion the strengths an weaknesses of the Japanese plans in the pacific.

The entry from that trusted source “ Wikipedia” in this case is a good summary of the overall action at Midway, Snip;

The Battle of Midway was a decisive naval battle in the Pacific Theater of World War II that took place between 4 and 7 June 1942, only six months after Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor and one month after the Battle of the Coral Sea. The United States Navy under Admirals Chester W. Nimitz, Frank Jack Fletcher, and Raymond A. Spruance defeated an attacking fleet of the Imperial Japanese Navy under Admirals Isoroku Yamamoto, Chūichi Nagumo, and Nobutake Kondō near Midway Atoll, inflicting devastating damage on the Japanese fleet that proved irreparable. Military historian John Keegan called it "the most stunning and decisive blow in the history of naval warfare",[9] while another naval historian, Craig L. Symonds, called it "one of the most consequential naval engagements in world history, ranking alongside Salamis, Trafalgar, and Tsushima, as both tactically decisive and strategically influential."

The Japanese operation, like the earlier attack on Pearl Harbor, sought to eliminate the United States as a strategic power in the Pacific, thereby giving Japan a free hand in establishing its Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. The Japanese hoped another demoralizing defeat would force the U.S. to capitulate in the Pacific War and thus ensure Japanese dominance in the Pacific. Luring the American aircraft carriers into a trap and occupying Midway was part of an overall "barrier" strategy to extend Japan's defensive perimeter, in response to the Doolittle air raid on Tokyo. This operation was also considered preparatory for further attacks against Fiji, Samoa, and Hawaii itself.

The plan was handicapped by faulty Japanese assumptions of the American reaction and poor initial dispositions. Most significantly, American cryptographers were able to determine the date and location of the planned attack, enabling the forewarned U.S. Navy to prepare its own ambush. Four Japanese and three American aircraft carriers participated in the battle. The four Japanese fleet carriers—Akagi, Kaga, Sōryū and Hiryū, part of the six-carrier force that had attacked Pearl Harbor six months earlier—were all sunk, as was the heavy cruiser Mikuma. The U.S. lost the carrier Yorktown and the destroyer Hammann. Also , and quite importantly, The Japanese fleet looking for a navel showdown with numerically inferior US fleet. Had overlooked, or had no knowledge of the 115 land based planes, from the B17s based on Midway and Hawaii to the douglas dive bombers from the Carriers that had “ magically escaped “ from Pearl Harbour.

After Midway and the exhausting attrition of the Solomon Islands campaign, Japan's capacity to replace its losses in material (particularly aircraft carriers) and men (especially well-trained pilots and maintenance crewmen) rapidly became insufficient to cope with mounting casualties, while the United States' massive industrial and training capabilities made losses far easier to replace. The Battle of Midway, along with the Guadalcanal campaign, is widely considered a turning point in the Pacific War.

Nagumo's dilemma, again from “wikipedia”;

In accordance with Japanese carrier doctrine at the time, Admiral Nagumo had kept half of his aircraft in reserve. These comprised two squadrons each of dive bombers and torpedo bombers. The dive bombers were as yet unarmed. The torpedo bombers were armed with torpedoes should any American warships be located.[71]

At 07:15, Nagumo ordered his reserve planes to be re-armed with contact-fused general-purpose bombs for use against land targets. This was a result of the attacks from Midway, as well as of the morning flight leader's recommendation of a second strike. Re-arming had been underway for about 30 minutes when, at 07:40,[72] the delayed scout plane from Tone signaled that it had sighted a sizable American naval force to the east, but neglected to describe its composition. Later evidence suggests Nagumo did not receive the sighting report until 08:00.[73]

Nagumo quickly reversed his order to re-arm the bombers with general-purpose bombs and demanded that the scout plane ascertain the composition of the American force. Another 20–40 minutes elapsed before Tone's scout finally radioed the presence of a single carrier in the American force. This was one of the carriers from Task Force 16. The other carrier was not sighted.[74]

Nagumo was now in a quandary. Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, leading Carrier Division 2 (Hiryū and Sōryū), recommended that Nagumo strike immediately with the forces at hand: 18 Aichi D3A1 dive bombers each on Sōryū and Hiryū, and half the ready cover patrol aircraft.[75] Nagumo's opportunity to hit the American ships[76] was now limited by the imminent return of his Midway strike force. The returning strike force needed to land promptly or it would have to ditch into the sea. Because of the constant flight deck activity associated with combat air patrol operations during the preceding hour, the Japanese never had an opportunity to position ("spot") their reserve planes on the flight deck for launch.[77]

The few aircraft on the Japanese flight decks at the time of the attack were either defensive fighters or, in the case of Sōryū, fighters being spotted to augment the combat air patrol.[78] Spotting his flight decks and launching aircraft would have required at least 30 minutes.[79] Furthermore, by spotting and launching immediately, Nagumo would be committing some of his reserve to battle without proper anti-ship armament, and likely without fighter escort; indeed, he had just witnessed how easily unescorted American bombers had been shot down.[80]

Japanese carrier doctrine preferred the launching of fully constituted strikes rather than piecemeal attacks. Without confirmation of whether the American force included carriers (not received until 08:20), Nagumo's reaction was doctrinaire.[81] In addition, the arrival of another land-based American air strike at 07:53 gave weight to the need to attack the island again. In the end, Nagumo decided to wait for his first strike force to land, then launch the reserve, which would by then be properly armed with torpedoes.[82]

In the final analysis, it made no difference; Fletcher's carriers had launched their planes beginning at 07:00 (with Enterprise and Hornet having completed launching by 07:55, but Yorktown not until 09:08), so the aircraft that would deliver the crushing blow were already on their way. Even if Nagumo had not strictly followed carrier doctrine, he could not have prevented the launch of the American attack.

I have already talked about the Navel and diplomatic codes; The IJN introduced JN-25 as a fleet general purpose system, and within a few months of introduction it was "of first importance in Japanese naval communications". Ultimately, on 31 August 1942, JN-25 absorbed the traffic previously carried on the administrative, intelligence and material codes.

These code systems had been in use before the introduction of JN-25. T

he intelligence code (introduced in 1935 and called I then JN-82) was cracked and found to largely contain reports on USN traffic volumes, and so work on the system was dropped.

The administrative code (introduced on 1 November 1938, called AD then JN-76) was partially readable in 1940, revealing simple things like ship movement reports, a revision of the system on 1 November 1940 made it proof against further cracking. The material code (introduced in 1935 and called MAT then JN-79) was cracked and revealed some information on the IJN building program, like the construction of the Yamato but no details as to size or guns carried. JN-25 was considered "by far the most complex problem to be attacked".

However, the coded traffic was not as up to date as it could have been. Intercepted traffic from the Pacific intercept stations, which in the period just before Pearl Harbor were Corregidor, Guam and Heeia, Oahu, Hawaii was forwarded to the US via the weekly sailing of the Dollar line "President" liners. A small amount of priority traffic could be sent airmail via the Pan Am clippers, which had a small strong box in their hulls.

This meant the unit in Washington received the messages at best around a week after they were intercepted, and only then if sent by air mail. There was also an intercept station at Seattle, which also sent its intercepts by mail, it was only after the start of the Pacific war that the mail was sent on a daily basis from Seattle. It was not until June 1942 that a TWX circuit was available to the west coast. Remember, Pearl Harbour occurred, Sunday morning, December 7, 1941 and the battle of Midway 4 and 7 June 1942. So America could read in “real time” the traffic for Midway but relied on the British for traffic for Pearl Harbour, That traffic wasnt as prompt as it could have been: -

According to Captain Pelletier, who was working in Washington, "Before the war, we in [OP-20-]GZ were not current with Japanese messages. Our traffic came by slow boat from Cavite [Corregidor]. Guam and Hawaii and by the time the additives were stripped, and the messages logged and printed, we were at least two months behind. I was also informed that my job was to recover code groups and not to worry about intelligence per se." [Albert Pelletier, "Cryptography -- Target Japan" "NCVA History Book" (Turner Publishing Co.: Paducah, KY 1996) p. 30.]

It must be noted, of the role of Bletchley park in England from where potential linguists and cryptographers were recruited from the University of Cambridge and the University of Oxford by referral through people like the Revd Martin Charlesworth, A.D. Lindsay, Dr C. P. Snow, and Theodore Chaundy. Candidates were interviewed and approved by a board that included Colonel Tiltman. Successful candidates received a final interview at Bletchley by a senior representative of their section.

Hut 7 was a wartime section of the Government Code and Cypher School (GC&CS) at Bletchley Park tasked with the solution of Japanese naval codes such as JN4, JN11, JN40, and JN-25. The hut was headed by Hugh Foss who reported to Frank Birch, the head of Bletchley's Naval section.

Hut 7 supplied crypt-analysts and linguists to Bletchley’s front line station the Far East Combined Bureau (FECB) at Hong Kong, then Singapore, then Anderson Station (Colombo, Ceylon, now Sri Lanka), then Allidina School in Kilindini, Kenya before moving back to Colombo. Bletchley co-operated with the US Navy Code and Signals Section known as OP-20-G in Washington D.C., and with FRUMEL in Melbourne.

Before we conclude, we must turn our attention to the device that was said to “end all wars” the “Atomic Bomb”.

As we have noted , Japan had lacked resources and because of that had expanded into Manchuria. In December 1938 German scientists, Otto Hahn and Fritz Stassmann submitted a paper to “Naturwissenschaften” reporting they had detected the element “Barium” after bombarding Uranium with Neutrons.

Lise Meitner who had left Germany and had been on the “Hahn” team, concluded with her nephew Otto Robert Frisch that what had happened in the “Hahn experiment” was nuclear fission on a small scale . Frisch confirmed the results with his own experiments in the January of 1939.

Physicists around the world immediately realized that “theoretically” chain reactions could be produced which would enable a destructive device of unimaginable proportions. The fact that Germany was leading the way in the field of nuclear research, sent alarm bells ringing through out the world.

Japan had nuclear scientists, who given Japans working relationship with Germany had access to the German ideas. Dr Nishina, a very competent physicist, had co-authored the “Klien-Nishina” formula and in 1931 had set up his own nuclear research lab at the Riken institute for physical and chemical research , in Tokyo.

Dr Nishina had built his first 26 inch “cyclotron” in 1936. They also purchased another cyclotron from the University of California, Berkeley in 1938. At this point, however we had better look at the different styles of uranium enrichment that were available at that time. Other techniques were available but the cyclotron was the leading method at that time.

The Cyclotron, Calutron was an electro-magnetic isotope separation process. Metallic uranium is first vaporized then positively charged ions are accelerated and then deflected by magnetic fields . A Calutron was used to provide some of the U235 used in Little boy.

One of the drawbacks of the Calutron was the consumption of electricity both of which Japan and Germany struggled with.

Japan was at the forefront of nuclear research and rapidly realized that there were better ways of enriching uranium. The army not to be discouraged and issued a report to set up an experimental project at Riken.

The Ni-go project. Its aim was to separate U235 by thermal diffusion and overlooked alternative methods such as electromagnetic , gaseous and centrifugal.

In typical fashion, 1943 the Japanese Navy had begun a research program called the “ F-go” project at the imperial university Kyoto. Head scientist, Bunsaka Arakatsu , who had spent time studying at the Cavendish Laboratory at Cambridge under Rutherford and at the Berlin University under Einstein . Arakatsus team included Hideki Yukawa; a later Nobel prize winner.

Early on the head of the Navy Research institute chemical section “ Kitagawa” requested Arakarsu to carry out work on the separation of U235 short before the end of the war . Arakatsu had produced an “ultra – centrifuge” designed to spin at 60 000rpm. Only the design was completed before the end of the war.

As I have noted earlier Tojo Hideki and Ishiwara Kanji and others spent time in Germany from the 1920s to the 1930s. Unlike Anglo-American relationship there seems to be relatively limited scientific Co-operation between Germany and Japan with Germany wanting to be paid in the early stage s but later, concerned about the future between the two countries and the outcome of the war. The Germans were more willing to transfer technology.

We know shipments took place in converted mine laying submarines because of the German accounts and of the submarines crews found in Japan after the war but more importantly, the surrendering of U234 in May of 1945.

On a side note this capture accelerated the American Nuclear project. Up to this date, the trinity project had focused on a plutonium bomb. Contained within U234 were the “Yellow cakes” and the technology which allowed the American project to switch tack and develop a uranium bomb. Which was later dropped on Hiroshima. The Hiroshima bomb was a Uranium bomb , the Nagasaki bomb was plutonium bomb.

So why would you drop and “untested” uranium bomb on you enemy that was “untested”. If it failed, you have just given your “secret technology “ to your enemy. This then begs the question ; who tested the uranium” bomb. The Germans. Yes the Germans. Why dint they use it? Possibly they had a more effective weapon under development,

Japan seems to have produced blueprints and a bomb , the blueprints surfaced from The Kuroda/Riken design when the widow of the Japanese industrial chemist who had escaped after the war died and the blueprints appeared.

Rumors still persist of the Japanese plans to test a device near Konan ( modern Haheungin ) in north Korea which was later occupied by the Russians after the war. Allowing the Russians access to state of the art Nuclear technology.

The Atomic bomb could have been dropped in an unoccupied area to show the Japanese they had been double crossed by the Germans. ( Martin Borhman and Ig Farbin). Leaflets were dropped proclaiming more bombs were used and hinting of a large stockpile. Nagasaki was just and act of pure evil.